Why can’t we simply blast our way into some volcano/fault line into the earth’s hot magma so that we exploit the earth’s heat by pumping water & exploiting the high quality steam? This would unleash an inexhaustible source of energy. I know this is a bit quixotic, but I am not concerned with appearances when it comes to saving this planet.

I have not fully explored the idea …. maybe what I say is impractical, foolish & what not. It would take people much more superior to me to solve problems of this magnitude.

What I want to drive home is that the best minds have to sit around & solve this problem. Pondering on the present set of alternatives and arriving at foregone conclusions is NOT the way out. You have to first build a system that generates the necessary resources - human & otherwise. You need to SAVE capital for that situation. Analogies of ships stranded midway in the ocean do not help us, my friend.

Having said that, I have to admit you have a point in Peak Oil. But that is all. Peak Oil is NOT the END OF THE WORLD. I don’t know how mankind would be saved. But it would be - All of it

PS - Be kind on me for my dreams.

Oil has been found in vesicles in volcanic rock, explain that using the biotic theory. Miners often follow traces of hydrocarbons to find gold, a product of volcanic activity, explain that using the biotic theory.

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the crisis is not an energy crisis, but a liquid fuel crisis. A nuclear power plant keeps the lights on in Walmart. It does not help the food get to WalMart.

That is the big disruption that peak oil will bring. Transportation is 95% liquid fuel based, and any conversion to alternatives will take time, money, and resources. You can’t flip a switch and simply replace oil.

On a side note, have we seen the top in the bonds?

Nice point about backwardation. Thanks. Got me thinking.

At first I did not consider using the toilet paper basis as an indicator of monetary distress. There are just so many data issues. But it might be possible. Given toilet paper’s dual role as a commodity and a potential monetary asset this might be another bird to watch.

Indeed, during difficult times when the SHTF, intuitively one might expect a greater immediate demand for toilet paper. Not to mention we are also inundated with a greater amount of s**t being shoveled in our direction by our great leaders. Backwardation in TP seems a logical outcome there.

But I don’t think that’s how it will work.

There is a potential kink in the pipe that could delay backwardation in toilet paper during hard times due to its commodity role (roll). During times of great economic stress when the great shoveling reaches a frenzy, the public typically answers the patriotic call. Bravely they will stand in place, taking on great stress as the s**t piles up around them. They will lie awake at night worrying. Insufficient sleep, diet and general disruption to a healthy routine often result in IRREGULAR INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE when it comes to spot demand for TP. We could see continued contango in the TP market.
(sorry about the caps lock)

But at the onset of a monetary crisis we could see the monetary characteristics of TP overwhelm its commodity supply/demand fundamentals. A move into backwardation, or more accurately a negative basis, would tell me that money is rushing into TP (the monetary ass-et) in search of refuge.

Here’s your dead canary.

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I do worry when Tom hasn’t posted for a while that he has found the magic basis trading system, is making huge profits and the next post announces his retirement and closure of this blog.

Oil wells deplete, then they need to PUMP the oil out when it goes below a certain pressure. After a while if you got some…you might INJECT NATURAL GAS or WATER. The Mexicans are using Natural Gas while the Saudis like water. The water cut in the Saudi Fields are rising each year. They have special Facilities called GSOP, or Gas Oil Seperation Plants to seperate the water and gas from the oil. You can learn all about this here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2436

So….why would the SAUDIS being INJECTING MILLIONS of BARRELS of WATER a day….if their oil fields were filling back up??? People want to believe in the FAIRY GOD MOTHER and that the earth has a CREAMY NUGGENT of OIL rather than believe OIL is finite. As I said….even if there was some DROPS of OIL coming from ABIOTIC OIL…..it can’t fill a rate of 84 million barrels a day.

COME ON PEOPLE….wake up and get some COMMON SENSE ….WILL YA….LOLOLOLOL

We can go around all day on this one…..but I will say this….just stay alive for a few more decades….and you will witness the REALITY of a HUMBLING EXPERIENCE in OIL DEPLETION.

Most, if not all, oil and gas reserves are found in proximity to major geological rift zones. Even the major coal deposits here in Australia are found where there has been extensive volcanic and associated geological activity in aeons past.

I presume you are refering to ABIOTIC OIL THEORY. Yes, I have heard of it. The Abiotic Theory of Oil Formation rates right up there next to the Perpetual Motion Machine. Abiotic Oil does take place. Unfortunately, its like watching a SNAIL cross the Country. Abiotic Oil formation vs. Fossilized Oil formation is like comparing a human sweating compared to the amount of URINE an elephant might release in a day. Sure, some Oil might come from the Abiotic method, but you and I will be long DEAD and buried for thousands of years before it makes a diffence.

If one wants to waste their time on the ABIOTIC THEORY of OIL, you can find some info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

andras & keseri, I am not playing DEVIL’s AVOCATE will you all. I am not that smart. I just happen to know who to read and who not to listen to. I am not always right…..but I can say on the other hand….I am not waiting for some other SLOB to come up with a way to FIX the problems coming down the pike.

To summarize what I am trying to get across here in this present debate….is this:

A huge SHIP left the dock with millions of people on board. Yes, this is a HUGE SHIP. For many years, a few very intelligent Engineers and those who THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX told the OWNERS and CAPTAIN that there wouldn’t be enough FUEL to get the ship to its FINAL DESITNATION. The Owner and Captain did not listen and the SHIP went on its MAIDEN VOYAGE. Unfortunately, about 3/4’s of the way the LARGE SHIP ran out of FUEL…and thus could only produce food when the engines were running. Yes there was some food in storage but not enough for a long time. Within a few months the majority of the people starved to death and the Captain was found dead with a BUTTER KNIFE shoved in his back.

The MORAL of the story is this……we had plenty of time to make these CHANGES but instead….we SPREAD SUBURBIA. Now that we need to make changes….The CHEAP OIL to do all this work is GONE and will be DEPLETING FASTER every year. The thing most people forget…..ALL THIS TECHNOLOGY that people want to use….NEEDS TO BE MINED, TRANSPORTED, MANUFACTURED and SHIPPED.

HOW CAN WE DO ALL THIS TECHNOLOGY WHEN THE OIL IS DEPLETING??? Wind Farms, Solar Power, Hydrogen power, Hydro-power, Nuclear Power, and etc….ALL NEED TO BE MINED, TRANSPORTED, MANUFACTURED, BUILT, and SHIPPED. That takes OIL to do.

TIME is UP…the clock has run out my friends. Yes, we can have all those nice ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES….but we need to remove several BILLION people off the FACE of the EARTH. People FAIL to realize that to do all these NICE THINGS…..it takes OIL to do it We look at how nice SOLAR POWER is….but we FAIL to comprehend it took OIL to make that SOLAR. It takes a great deal of OIL to make a WIND TURBINE and the HUGE BLADES.

Think about it……we MISSED THE BOAT my friends….we had a great PARTY for the past 2-3 decades….and now we RUN out the CLOCK. Its too late for ALTERNATIVES for the MASSES. Sure for a much smaller world population. So pick your POISON….and hope for the best.

We live in interesting times….

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(Though I think 27% is still a big number. It is for consuming)
My point is, in agreement with Keseri, that there is always alternatives and if not, the market will reprice if it is left alone. The US population was the fastest to change consumer habits when oil hit $147. All those countries, the majority of the oil suppliers, where there is no market just a strongman buying local peace with subsidized oil were much worse. You can argue that it is their oil they can do whatever they want with it. The problem with that that they usually aquired the asset by nationalizing a western investment (stealing). OK, you can still continue, it is theirs, they can do whatever they want. My only problem that they can only steal. They don’t explore, they can not even produce without destroying “their” fields prematurely. Thus my earlier note that socialism is responsible for peak oil. Under these conditions no sane explorer will spend billions, not even in the US and Canada let alone Venezuela or Brasil.

What do you think about the theory of inorganic geological formation of oil?

It pays to do your research before you put incorrect facts in your posts. According to the EIA, at 2005 figures, the United States has only 27% of the worlds Coal Supply. Furthermore, the United States has depleted a large percentage of its HIGH QUALITY BLACK COAL (Anthracite) during the early 1900’s and WW2. Now we use more lower quality coal, Bituminous, Sub-Bituminous, and Lignite. Lignite which is brown coal, the lowest quality of coal, basically dirt with coal mixed in it. This is what we use for Electric Generation.

You can get your figures correct by checking out here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal

Furthermore, new studies are showing much less WORLD COAL RESERVES than expected. This was also done by the US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY during the 1950-60’s when they USA INFLATED OIL RESERVES. They had to eat their words when the United States peaked in OIL PRODUCTION in 1970.

The figures that Wiki-Pedia show are from 2005 at a total of 998 Billion Tons of World Coal. The United States held approx. 246 Billion Tons. The new numbers that are coming out of recently are showing WORLD COAL RESERVES at only 662 Billion Tons. A great deal less. Thus, Sobbering many of the OPTIMISTS.

People can come up with every different answer to PEAK OIL….but at some time…we have to wake up from our DREAM and SMELL THE COFFEE. Too many people out there….with the WRONG FACTS and LOUSY SOLUTIONS. This is why I am PESSIMISTIC. WHY??

TOO MANY OPTOMISTIC PEOPLE WHO DON’T HAVE A CLUE.

I appreciate that oil is a form of energy. Just dig it, distill it & then use it. But, so is coal, Uranium & thorium. OK, coal is not such a concentrated form of energy. Uranium would last only 50 years and Thorium is an undeveloped form of energy. Both Uranium & thorium need tons of capital. I would leave out wind, solar and water power. I don’t understand why you can’t have technological breakthroughs here but for the moment I would leave them alone and assume a role reversal.

For the moment let me subscribe to your stance. Let us assume that we have peaked. Say, from now onwards, oil production can only fall. That still gives us a 20 year lifespan - isn’t it. Maybe more, if the crest is say 10 year down the line. Let us say that mankind would see a declining production for a consecutive 3-5 years. When this happens oil executives would panic. Then the markets. The government. The public. This volcanic wave of panic would soon engulf the globe. What more, the best of the best minds would start working towards a SOLUTION.

One of the first solutions that would rightaway be implemented is an overnight ban on all forms of private transportation. All cars, motor-bikes and gas guzzling American SUVs would be outright scrapped at the peril of one’s life. That would conserve the global oil drum to approx 50 years. 50 precious years of fresh air & mankind. This is good enough time for technology to work wonders. Who knows the Tokomak may fire on all cylinders by then.

Coming to the money part, I believe when you say money, you mean capital. Trillion dollar infrastructure to replace the existing oil clunk. To that may I respond by saying the key to the peak oil problem, if there is one, is golden in color. Capital preservation instinct would push gold from a 3 trillion dollar market to a 30 trillion dollar market. Enough capital to save the world.

Great job. But not enought info. Where can i read more?…