Not a Good Day to be Short
Just about everything was up today except the U.S. dollar as cash poured back into assets of every stripe. This could last a few days but it doesn’t feel like the underlying reality has changed despite market pundits claiming otherwise. We are likely to be at a rest stop instead of the end of the road. Let’s quickly take a look at a few markets.
U.S. Dollar Index — The “safety” of reserve currency did not hold much cachet today and the dollar was a consensus sell. There is now a distinct possibility that the 89+ level reached a few days ago was a rally peak or even a double top. The dollar index, however, has a permissible downside to around 84 before the medium term bullish case is in danger. Gold and silver may have difficulty leveraging a falling dollar unless and until that level is reached.
Treasury Bonds — Bonds were up today despite a weaker dollar and a very strong day for U.S. equities. Under the circumstances, higher bond prices may be saying that expectations for imminent inflation remain low. Bonds appear to be consolidating recent extreme moves and the 30 year could trade in a range between 120 and 130 (equivalent to a yield around 3.5%) for quite a while. Any movement outside this range would be important as it invites a major reassessment of near-term deflationary or inflationary potential.
Crude Oil — Time has not yet run out on that possible final low in crude oil in the mid-20s and downside risk will remain as long as there is a major overhang of stored supply and no appreciable pickup in demand. From a technical standpoint, the spot month price may advance slightly above $50 without invalidating the case for a capitulation bottom at new lows. Incidentally, $50 is a level where some of the oil in storage may start coming to market and that’s a pretty good reason why a rally could again stop around there. As for contango, late last week the 1-year forward spread in WTI crude approached the $6 threshold that I indicated could be a major inflection point but it was never quite breached and the contango currently sits in the $7-8 range. Should spot-month WTI crude surmount the $50 level, it will be relevant to observe the spread behavior: a widening contango would give arbitrageurs some extra room to carry oil in inventory for a while longer and this could support higher interim oil prices (a breakdown in the dollar below 84 could technically make an oil rally to $70-80 possible), whereas a tightening contango (especially below $6 on an annual basis) may force some oil to be sold for immediate end-use at market clearing prices that are likely to be lower, perhaps much lower.
U.S. Equities — U.S. stock markets have become extremely oversold in the past few weeks and a bearish consensus has been building up. A sharp rally was only a matter of time and the reasons for it are hardly relevant. Indeed, the rally so far has been purely technical in nature with no basis in fundamentals other than the fact that the world is not going to end tomorrow. I suppose it shows just how negative sentiment has become that a mere reprieve from Armageddon is so roundly celebrated. There are even suggestions that a substantial amount of short-covering has taken place. In any case, the S&P500 has rallied 13% in less than a week from a low of 666.79 last Friday to a close of 750.74 today. Immediate upside is to the 800 level (a 20% rally from the low) and at that point reality might start to set in again. Presumably if the S&P rises much above 800 then the notion of a U.S. recovery, even if temporary, will start to grow. That in turn could give an unexpected boost to the U.S. dollar. I believe the most likely scenario for the S&P500 is a trading range between 700 and 900 with possible sharp spikes lower or higher. Inspiration for this call comes from studying the Nikkei between 1989 and 1993.
Gold — Bargain hunters have continued to come into gold near the $900 level for a number of days even as some of the apparent urgency for owning the yellow metal has been evaporating. Buying and selling pressure are currently in pretty good balance with strong physical demand in evidence. Gold would probably need to take out the $880 level on the downside or the $950 level on the upside for the balance to be upset. This range is tight enough that we should expect a break one way or the other during the next couple of weeks. In my personal opinion, the reasons for remaining cautious are still there and the speculative risk-reward continues to be skewed toward the downside. I see that Jim Cramer is still recommending gold to his flock but only at lower prices — this contrarian indicator (the idea that large numbers of retail buyers will be able to buy gold at a lower average price) is perhaps one of the best things gold has going for it.
Silver — It would have been nice to see silver leverage today’s asset rally to gain a foothold above $13 but it seems the cartel has drawn a line in the sand at that unlucky price. Seriously, the lack of pizzazz by silver does create some concern; the best explanation (besides manipulation by JPMorgan) for the price behavior is simply that dwindling supply has been able to keep up with record investment demand. Even the recent supply disruption in Mexico (world’s second or third largest silver producer) resulting from a strike at the Fresnillo mine last December followed by the ongoing strike at Penoles’ MetMex refinery has apparently not mattered much. Indeed, Penoles says they have sufficient silver to last for months which I’m sure simply means to the conspiracy bugs that Penoles is a member of the silver suppression club. In any case, Penoles most likely doesn’t have “excess” silver inventory and that could theoretically account in part for the backwardation in LBMA silver over the past couple of months. The LBMA backwardation continues to persist although it is moderating. I see a couple of paths forward for silver:Â (1) a noticeable pickup in global industrial activity would very likely lead to some inventory restockpiling, which should result in silver outperforming gold as it moves toward a gold-silver price ratio of 50-to-1, or (2) a resumption of significant investment buying of silver indicated by emptying of dealer stocks, rise in retail premiums and increase in ETF holdings. A near-term price target of $16 is not out of the question in either circumstance but otherwise we are likely to see a trading range between $11.50 and $14.50. At this point I don’t see silver going below $11.50 unless dragged lower by gold.
There has been alot of talk lately about the possibility of reinstating the uptick rule and suspending the mark to market requirement for certain assets held by financial institutions. If one or both of these actions took place in a declining market and had no positive effect a waste of political or financial capital would have been declared. On the other hand if the announcement were to be made this weekend after more follow through tomorrow it would support a more sustainable move. Like one of those seven or eight bear market rallies that took place in the 1930’s. Can you imagine the angst that the decision maker would be going through on deciding when to pull the trigger on that one.
The uptick rule is irrelevant and its psychological mileage is limited. The mark-to-market requirement is an accounting issue and would take some time to work through the bean counter bureaucracy. A sustained market rally would occur because there is widespread expectation of a fundamental shift from economic contraction to economic expansion 6-9 months ahead. Otherwise we merely have a range trade that consolidates the recent losses.
TOM,
Your request to keep posting “IF” or “WHEN” I am wrong about the DISINTEGRATION will be trulyy considered. I agree with you present post….TIME NOT TO BE SHORT. There are a FEW EXCEPTIONS THO. As I said in the previous post…TIME TO BE SHORT the FED, US TREASURY, BONDS, BEN BERNANKE and SPARKY THE CLOWN GEITHNER.
Tom, I am not the only one in the DISINTEGRATION CAMP. Of course we have JIM WILLIE, KARL DENNIGER, and MARTIN ARMSTRONG to name a few. Even from Jail, Martin Armstrong still comes out with very interesting work. His most recent article called, “IS IT TIME TO TURN OUT THE LIGHTS?”.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html
Armstrong who was become famous with his CYCLES THEORY going back to the beginning of mankind, is now writing about a “WATERFALL EFFECT”, which he explains here:
The far more dangerous pattern is the rolling over of an economy that is less dramatic, but does far more damage. Suddenly you just wake-up and everything is changed. This happened in China and Russia during 1989. There was no spike, just what I call the ”Waterfall Effect” that appears to be how a political state simply dies with no flare nor big bang.
The greatest concern that we should have is the degree of volatility is off the charts. We are looking at nearly an outside reversal to the downside of the Euro on an annual basis! This degree of volatility is truly amazing on an annual level and has not been seen since 1933. Just look at the previous chart of the Pound. Note that in 1933, the Pound fell to new lows, but then reversed and even exceeded the $5 level, due to Roosevelt’s 60% devaluation of the dollar and the confiscation of gold domestically. The sheer level of volatility is clearly back to the days of the Great Depression.
———————-
Listen….I am not here to be the “DOOM and GLOOMER” because I enjoy this sort of thing. Hardly. But when you look OUTSIDE the BOX, and bring ones EYES off the PAGES of TECHINICALS, CHARTS and ETC and LOOK around….you will begin to realize there is not much to HOLD UP THIS AMERICAN HOUSE of CARDS.
Lastly…..the DISINTEGRATION is not something that will take place TOMORROW or NEXT WEEK….this will take YEARS to UNFOLD. So have PATIENCE TOM. I hope if I AM RIGHT….you will STILL BE HERE POSTING in the SILVERAXIS as I enjoy your work as well.
SRS (chicken Little) rocco
Jeeesh…it should have read “ARMSTRONG who became famous”. and not “ARMSTONG who was become Famous”.
word to my brain………
Fascinating article SRSrocco, nobody ever talks about the “conservative bond holders” getting wiped out in the Depression, they only talk about the stock market crash.
SRS, That is what I meant, that you keep posting because if there is a disintegration it is likely to be a slow grind and we will need your humor to deal with the constant pain!
I agree, this equity rally is just a head-fake. Fannie needs 30 billion more, unemployment is still dismal, GE just lost its AAA rating and the list goes on.
I do not think this thing will take years to unfold, as a cascade derivative failure could and probably will strike and reek havoc with alarming speed. GE the derivative monster just made this possibility more real.
The most dangerous derivatives are the credit default swaps because they have all-or-nothing provisions that can result in losses and gains approaching notional value. AIG was a major purveyor of them and at some point the AIG issue will be resolved. Also, it is very likely that some form of regulation, perhaps international in scope, is forthcoming soon. As such, I actually believe derivatives risk is likely to be decreasing in the months ahead.
A rally in the stock markets is to be expected. While
massive inflation is a fact, we have yet to see significant
price increases across the spectrum of various goods,
services and assets. The disease (inflation) is in places,
the incubation period seems about right, the symptom
(price increases) are about to show.
The old adage says the stock markets predict the
general economy about 6 months down the road.
The stock markets are now like a giant rung out, dried up
sponge. They are a great candidate for soaking
up the first shock of newly minted fiat liquidity.
Once that sponge becomes somewhat saturated,
the excesses will again spill out into the economy.
General prices will skyrocket. Remember when the
Zimbabwe Stock exchange was the best performer
in the world with 10,000% year gains?
The old saw says “money is the root of all evil”. If
that is so, the world today is a pure and holy place indeed.
Money is no longer used. Not a single government on
the planet issues any. They issue smoke and mirrors,
razzle dazzle computer blips. “Bonds” which bond no one
to anything real. All supported and backed by the
various carnival barkers; the central bankers, the
treasury secretaries, the financial “experts” who continue
to hawk the old worn out show that has run its course.
What the world needs is to start using money again.
Real money. Gold and Silver. Even a little bit
would help stabalize the system Sort of like vitamins.
You need only very small amounts. Without those trace amounts
the system shuts down; without them you die.
Don’t Bet on Hyperinflation! by Mike Stathis
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9409.html
“the chance hyperinflation occurring our life time is null, goose egg, zero.”
“Washington would find a reason to go to war before allowing hyperinflation to kick in.”
Well thats Ok then. I thought wars helped trigger hyperinflation?
The author seems to confuse price inflation with hyperinflation, does not mention the cornering of Gold or Silver or how lack of confidence can be a trigger, sending the velocity of money sky high. I hope it does not happen, and it may well be avoided, but many of the potential triggers are now in place - hence this website.
@Antifiat,
In my view, an empire needs a substantial military defeat before hyperinflation sets in. Until this defeat, the military can be used to back the global looting.
Afghanistan, the cemetery of empires may be it. However, it will take at least a year or two to even realize that the fight is hopeless. Additionally, without an emerging competitor, the whole defeat can be swept under the rug resulting in a very slow bleeding to death financially.
Great link Antifiat. Stathis comes off like he’s a “legend in his own mind” but has good points about some financial advisor’s motives. The link to his Nov 24, 2008 commentary(http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7474.html) is an interesting read also. He recommends trading the volatility in PMs as opposed to buy-and-hold.
I think this guy is harping on the definition of hyperinflation too much. No, I don’t believe the U.S. will have inflation approaching 50% per month but it could be several percent per month and well over 10% per year. It will also be impossible to control (without creating a deflationary collapse) which is another definition for hyperinflation. The point is that by the time there is the possibility of a return to relative stability we could be looking at an extra zero tacked on most prices including products and services, real estate, stocks, etc. This should only be interesting to you as a gold or silver investor if you have fixed-dollar debt. Otherwise you want to see an increase in the purchasing power of gold and silver compared to other investments and assets and it is much harder to predict the extent to which this will happen even if there is high, out of control (in other words hyper-) inflation.
How long can the price of gold keep rising before all confidence is lost?
I think it will be the other way around. A cascade failure and a few really big BK’s and loss of control.
Gold will then indicate this has happened by rising 100-200 dollars in a day. JMO
US Mint suspends American Eagle Gold coins AGAIN…:
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&categoryId=13238&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10191&top_category=10191
Sounds like they’re diverting all planchets to produce the “real deal” eagles and are only suspending the production of numismatic proofs and “W” mintmark uncirculated offerings.
forwill,
I believe all GOLD EALGES are either uncirculated or proof. If you go down to the bottom of the US MINT release, you will see this sentence:
Additionally, as a result of the recent numismatic product portfolio analysis, fractional sizes of American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins will no longer be produced.
—————–
From that release, they are SUSPENDING all GOLD AMERICAN 1 oz EAGLES…..because these are not OFFICIAL MONETARY COINS….these are not meant for circulation….thus all GOLD EAGLES as well as SILVER EAGLES are uncirculated.
Also….I have to agree with your reply about the MARTIN ARMSTRONG article. I did not realize the BOND HOLDERS were wiped out worse than those in the STOCK MARKET during the 1930’s Depression.
Furthermore……according to ARMSTRONG’s PI CYCLE, he believes we will see a top in the BROADER MARKETS on March 19. Then as he states in his article we can see a huge COLLAPSE in the DOW JONES to 4,000 by JUNE or SEPT 2009. If that is the case, then we will see GOLD and SILVER skyrocketing as an INVERSE to the DOW. Folks, this means GAME OVER for the FINANCIAL WORLD. As the DOW JONES moves down to that level…it will implode most worthless paper assets with it.
Lastly, according to John Williams SHADOW GOVT STATS, the real unemployment numbers for FEB were not 651,000, but more like 900,000. Also, the OFFICIAL GDP figure for Q4 2008 was revised down to -6.2%. Unless you have a paid subscription at SHADOW STATS you can’t get the updated figure. By looking at the older graphs on the site, I found that the REAL GDP compared to the so called OFFICIAL was lower at about 3.5% on average. So if you do the math….the REAL GDP for Q4 2008 was more like -9.7% or almost -10%.
Most Americans don’t trust the GOVT….why on earth would they BELIEVE the NONSENSE they put out as OFFICIAL FIGURES.
SRSrocco, before 2006 the Mint only offered “proof” Eagles for collectors. That year they introduced the “uncirculated” version(for direct purchase from the Mint) which is identical to the bullion coins except they added the West Piont “W” mintmark. This gave them value to collectors as another version of the coin and of course added a huge premium over the standard(no mintmark) bullion coins offered only through dealers. This “marketing” if you will, was used on the silver eagle in ‘06 as well and the ‘06 “uncirculated” Silver Eagle with the “W” mintmark goes for around $100 ungraded.
Anyhow, the statement that dieuwer linked to is saying that all blanks will be used to produce the bullion coins sold through dealers only. They cite the law that requires them to meet demand by the public for bullion. They are suspending production of the collectable versions only.
Numismatics is a great place to study bubble psychology. Just like at Christmas time with the “latest” hot toy or game, when demand for a collectable coin appears to exceed supply, the going price skyrockets. Speculators, seeing the wild profits to be made, start trying to corner the market by buying in numbers and the price goes up again. When all the buy and hold fools are finished buying at greatly inflated prices because they just “Have to Have One” and “this sucker is going to the moon” the price often plunges below the initial selling price.
Ebay rocks for people with good timing who can get their wares to market quickly while the bubble is at its peak.
A good article (I think) by James Turk.
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2009-03-15.html
29 Questions for a Silver Futures Broker - Answers
http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1237204262.php
Brokers are unconcerned. Uncle Warbucks will cover any possible default to maintain the short position. Whats a few extra Billion between friends?
Fekete has it that fiat currencies fail when all bids for precious metals are rejected - a ‘corner in the market’.
IMF poised to print billions of dollars in ‘global quantitative easing’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4986287/IMF-poised-to-print-billions-of-dollars-in-global-quantitative-easing.html
“economists warned that the scheme could cause a major swell of inflation around the world as the newly-created money filters through the system.”
I just have read the new commentary published by Ted Butler. He mentions a few signals which indicate a probable sharp raise in the Ag price including the backwardation which already was discussed here at length.
I may add some of my own oberservations. If the attacks on the Ag price were caused by the shorts as before then the patterns are very different to the attacks - say - a year ago. I see much more resistance in the charts - just like a high-power diamond drill meats a layer of rocks embedded with diamonds - which usually means the end of the drill and a bonanza being found.
Based on that observation I suggest that everybody revokes any stop-loss on their silver investments (on your own discretion) because it seems likely that the shorts will use price-spikes as a last resort to rock the boat and collect the fallout.
Many factors are converging now - massive fiat currency creation (if not in main street yet) vs relative shortages of physical metal. The IMF is a de facto extension of the Fed via SDR’s etc. with all the future inflationary consequences of that. Gold will be next to go into backwardation unless this monetary tsunami can be stopped.
Inflation or deflation…equity rallies or crashes…commodities, including gold and silver, breaking down or reaching new highs. These guys say we’ll get it all in the coming decade. A good read. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wilson/mar172009.html
Buy Au @ $880, Ag @ 11.50 today around 2.15 PM?
I am buying Platinum today, physical of course. Never touch the leverage on that one if you want to stay in the game. Once you buy the stuff and hold it in your hand you are hooked. It is much denser than gold so a one ounce coin is a narrower disk than gold and much heavier.
Have a laugh on me if the price drops. I have received some of my ultra high relief gold coins from the mint. I opened one box that was stamped after the Mar 11 cut off for the first strike designation and the coins are much smaller in diameter but substantially thicker. Very nice. Definitely a keeper even though I could sell my ms70 first strikes for 1K over cost.
You lucky guy! ms70 of Saint-Gaudens’ dream coin…SWEET!
bought back my short at $900. Now gold down $30 ,I am buying at this level.
Looks like perfect timing!
GOOD BYE DOLLAR!
dieuwer: We almost got to Au@880 and Ag@11.50 but I doubt whether there will be another spike. This one looked quite expensive and it caused no big sell-off. W’ll see.
I guess that the new strategy should be buy&hold and buy some more in the downwards spikes. Any other opinions?
OMG on the Fed announcement. We are not talking about buying our paper. We are doing it to the tune of one trillion… So far $46 intraday reversal. I agree, goodbye dollar.
Not a good day to be short. The banksters went after all the stops and the moonshot is on. This is it. It is now.
OK. This does not look good for the $. But somebody is buying US-bonds like there is no tomorrow. Is it the PPT or the FED? A good time to sell a few billions here and a few billions there.
15:52 (PM EST): Au back to 935. Ag back to 12.80. Do we see an upward spike now? Perhaps the first step to Au@1500?
DSB, it is called the “free-money-trade”:
Since we now know that the FED will buy bonds by the end of next week, we may as well buy bonds TODAY to off-load them NEXT WEEK onto the FED for higher prices!
I had to look twice at the charts - the DI has crashed to towards the key level at 84. Just goes to show, keep your key holdings in PM’s and add on the dips.
Always convenient to have the FED statement at 2.15 PM EST,
after the close of the NYMEX, when Europe has stopped trading and when Asia is still asleep.
GVZ gold vix
http://www.cboe.com/publish/Scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/gvzhistory.csv
PauPer, how do you use this index data? As a predictive tool? Does activity in options telegraph sentiment or something?
You gotta love the effect of the direct monetization of a paltry $300 billion of debt…much more to come I’m sure.
My plan to convert some of my SLV to bullion worked better this time…pulling the sell trigger was hard(didn’t want to miss a gap up), but in the end I was able to buy at a much better price.
Buying $300 BILLION in BONDS is not as INSANE as buying an additional $750 BILLION in Mortgage Back Securities. Who is going to buy that JUNK?? Furthermore….Peter Schiff is saying…this is a great OPPORTUNITY for foreign countries who own US BONDS to sell them to the FED.
What the FED did today….is PURE INSANITY. You can tell this is INSANITY when you see JIM CRAMER today on his show jumping up and down with DOLLAR BILLS with BEN BERNANKE’s FACE on them saying, “BERNANKE is the MAN”. Wall Street and the US GOVT are completely INSANE.
This is very BULLISH for GOLD and SILVER…..just a matter of time.
C’mon SRSrocco, the taxpayers are gonna make a profit on those MB securities. The boys in Washington say so.(maniacal laughing in the background)
Forwill,
Watching SPARKY THE CLOWN GEITHNER and HOWDY DOODY BERNANKE the past several months makes even GROWN ADULTS laugh so hard their Stomach hurts. This is PURE INSANITY. I believe JIM CRAMER would get on his KNEES for BERNANKE as it has SAVED HIS AZZ along with his WALL STREET CRONIES for a TAD BIT LONGER.
The FED CROSSED the LINE today. There is no heading back. Even if we became a MANUFACTURING ECONOMY within the next several years to pull us out of this DEPRESSION…all the TRILLIONS spent on expanding the SUBURBAN SPRAWL with MALLS, STRIP MALLS, COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE and etc would have to IMPLODE. There is no value in that GARBAGE. The SERVICE ECONOMY is DEAD….and all the WINDOW DRESSING that went with it.
This is why those MORTGAGE BACK SECURITIES will become worthless in the future. We hear that the FED is ADDING CAPITAL….HAHAHAHaHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHhhahahahahah.
C-A-P-I-T-A-L????? You got to be kidding. They are OPENING UP MONOPOLY GAMES and stealing the COLORFUL MONEY and BUYING up JUNK. This is FRICKEN HILARIOUS…..printing money to buy JUNK. Capital my AZZ. BERNANKE wouldn’t know what CAPITAL was if it FELL on his PRINTING PRESS.
Let me tell you who another CLASS A CLOWN is….that MORON BILL GROSS of PIMCO. I watched him today APPLAUD what BERNANKE did by using more CREDIT CARDS to PAY OFF the OLD ONES. BILL GROSS needs BERNANKE like BERNIE MADOFF needs a KNIFE in the BACK.
At some point in time….WALL STREET and the CLOWNS in the GOVT will have to pay for their SINS. TAR and FEATHERS won’t be enough to SOOTHE the AMERICAN CITIZEN. At some point in time…AMERICANS will have to follow what the FRENCH did during their REVOLUTION…and by that I mean………..HEADS WILL ROLL.
The printing press thing is hilarious. I’m tired of having my productivity stolen year after year by these Bozos. Hopefully we all can beat the thieving bastards at their own game.
Talk about “for every action there is an ALMOST equal and opposite reaction”
LAST CLOSE:10 YEAR USTBond price up +3.6% +4.41 to 127=USDX down -3% 2.55 to 84.35
What the FED did yesterday totally confirms the many January Fekete missives. He was sounding the too late alarm and the Fed is now buying its own debt. This is how all fiat ends.
Gold to Soar
“So Treasuries spiked yesterday, but the gains were almost entirely erased by the drop in the dollar, and then you have to factor in the drop in the yield for potential new buyers.”
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1237478622.php
Once the capital gains through rising bond prices (Fekete) are more than erased by a falling dollar there is no case for holding them. No wonder China is buying mainly short dated treasuries. Cue a new currency…
The case for Treasuries continues to be that they are the largest and most liquid interest-bearing securities in the world. The case for no longer holding them is closely tied to yields and rates of inflation.
Hallo all, can somebody update me on the backwardation status of Ag? Does it still exists after todays raise?
Backwardation is disappearing from LBMA silver and has not occurred in COMEX silver. On the ETF front, I will be updating the basis for Metal Augmentor subscribers later.
DiscreetSilverBug,
yes….matter-a-fact the BACKWARDATION has increased. It has been falling for the past week until yesterday. Today the 1 month lease rate fell twice as much as yesterday. The 2 month rate fell 6 fold. Take a look at the rates:
DATE 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
12-Mar-09 -0.11833 -0.10833 -0.05833 0.06429 0.13857
13-Mar-09 -0.06500 -0.05833 -0.05167 0.09167 0.17000
16-Mar-09 -0.03333 -0.02500 -0.01667 0.06667 0.15833
17-Mar-09 -0.02500 -0.01667 -0.00833 0.06667 0.14167
18-Mar-09 -0.02857 -0.00714 0.00000 0.07857 0.16429
19-Mar-09 -0.05833 -0.04167 -0.02500 0.00833 0.16000
Again….BEN HOWDIE DOODY BERNANKE SLIT the US DOLLARS THROAT yesterday by telling the world the US FED was going to be EVERYTHING under the SUN including the KITCHEN SINK, THE BABY and the BATH WATER. Martin Weiss was on CNBC today and said……TO BIG TO FAIL….has FAILED.
It’s just a matter of TIME before we see HYPERINFLATION and the DISINTEGRATION of the UNITED STATES.
Well, which is it, deflation or hyperinflation?
For now on, I suggest using gold as the basis to which everything else is compared.
For me, in order to buy a stock, bond, or commodity, it must outperform gold on an annual basis. If not, I’m not buying.
A good article;
http://www.runtogold.com/2009/03/federal-reserve-will-fail-with-quantitative-easing/
Is it possible that Exter’s Pyramid may topple over and and its contents slosh around, with gold and silver falling straight to the bottom, BEFORE the US dollar is the last currency standing?
I prefer the analogy of flattening vs. toppling (the implication being that movement between levels becomes faster and more fluid). I also don’t view derivatives as capital and certainly not at their notional amounts. That said, the article does make some very good points.