Short Update / Open Thread
First, apologies for not posting the past couple of weeks, it will pick up shortly. Second, I really appreciate all the comments (okay, not the silly ones that bemoan my absence) and hope that you will keep it up. I would particularly appreciate seeing some of the “regulars” linking to and discussing the major stories of the day as I know these discussions you’ve been having in the comment section are being read and enjoyed by a lot of people.
As far as the silver and gold market, what can I say? Another week and more of the same. The monetary base continues to explode and silver and gold continue to struggle near their lows.
November 11th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
I agree. Please keep these ideas and opinions coming folks. I’m learning alot and need to learn alot more to survive in these tough times. I really do believe the metals time is coming soon.
November 11th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
SilverX care to comment on the lastest Ted Butler commentary he put out yesterday on 11-10-2008. Anything new there or anything at all. Also anybody else care to comment on the articule.
November 11th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Jim Rogers says sell dollars and buy silver:
http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=27208&t=1&c=35&cg=4&mset=1011
INTERNATIONAL. Legendary global investor Jim Rogers believes the recent dollar gains are temporary and are not based on fundamentals.
“The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary,” Rogers recently told a group of private bank clients.
“Within a year you’ll have to get rid of the dollar,” he said.
Rogers has spent a career being one step ahead of mainstream investment thinking. Amongst his many accomplishments, Rogers was co-founder with George Soros of Quantum Fund. During his ten years with the fund, the portfolio gained more than 4,000%, while the S&P rose less than 50%.
All hedge funds were short on the dollar, Rogers said, but because there has been a rapid increase in the dollar’s value against other currencies, fund managers want to buy them now.
“This is temporary, Rogers says. “Fundamentally it is a drama.”
Rogers also said US government bonds are extremely overvalued. “They are “the world’s last bubble.”
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive “zombie banks” that should be allowed to fail, he said
The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s. “It’s 18 years later and their stock market is 75% or 80% below what it was 18 years ago,” he added.
“I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that’s why I’m long short-term government bonds in the US, but shorting long-term government bonds because it’s not going to help, it’s going to add to inflation.”
Rogers admits that silver has been particularly battered down, 35% this year, and perhaps that is why he thinks this precious metal will outperform gold as investors turn to the metal as a hedge against inflation.
“Silver will do better than gold,” Rogers recently said. “It’s been beaten down horribly. If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy one, I would buy silver rather than gold.”
Gold may drop as central banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sell the metal to raise cash, said Rogers, who correctly predicted in April 2006 that gold would reach US$1,000 an ounce. The IMF in May ratified a plan that included proposals to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold to reduce a budget deficit.
“The IMF has gigantic amounts of gold. Maybe gold is going to go down for a while. If gold does go down, I’m going to buy more,” Rogers said.
November 11th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Speaking of the monetary base: renowned deflationist Mish (Shedlock) argues that it’s still not enough to compensate for ongoing destruction of a credit, and that we’re entering a hard deflation. He made an interesting observation about the similar pattern appearing in the rate of MB change before the Great Depression and the current crisis - see the last figure in his article:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/parents-pull-kids-from-day-care-and.html
November 11th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Any comments??
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Texas Congressman’s Bill to Set Gold Price to $500 Still in Committee
by Northwest Territorial Mint Staff
The bill introduced in the House on July 31 by Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX) directing the Fed to “make the value of the U.S. dollar equal to the market value of 0.05 of a troy ounce of gold and maintain the value of the United States dollar at this level” remains in committee.
Part of an overall bill entitled, “The Sound Dollar and Economic Stimulus Act of 2008,” Rep. Poe’s attempt to limit gold to $500 also calls for 100% depreciation of all business assets in the year acquired.
According to Poe, writing in RealClearMarkets, “The Fed would do this by announcing that its Open Market Desk was prepared to sell government bonds and contract the monetary base until the price of gold falls to $500 per ounce.”
Poe says that the monetary base was $827 billion the last time gold sold for $500, in December 2005. The base has since expanded, and was $872 billion at the time he wrote, which would mean the Fed would need to sell about $45 billion worth of bonds to remove currency from circulation.
The 110th Congress will be in session beginning November 17, at which point it will be seen whether the lame duck House moves the bill out of the House Budget Committee.
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P.S. I am still unsure about how these bailouts will cause inflation when all this money is simply “replacing” money lost elsewhere…
November 11th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
APMEX seems to now be overflowing with silver they’re willing to sell all of a sudden.
November 11th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Gold and silver are itching to breakout today. Since the Usd has broken to the upside, the Pms are likely to break to the downside. Folks, wait patiently, you may have very good bargains coming over the next few days.
November 11th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Serge,
Not really that interesting.
Using a chart pattern to support a specific projected outcome when you have only a couple historical data points is statistically meaningless. Additionally, he also assumes that the economic fundamentals of the US are similar for both periods. They are not. Lastly he seems rather US centric in his views and ignores a number of international forces that will undermine the dollar - leading to higher prices in the US.
He and others misrepresent the model to which people refer in predicting US price inflation. He can then simplistically debunk that misrepresented model.
The story is not (yet) only one of increasing amounts of new money chasing “risk assets” (tangibles) in an effort to escape the inflating dollar – which subsequently falls in value. This is not only an isolated domestic US market process subject to “nonexistent” US consumer credit demand.
This is a national funding issue for the US, and an even more critical one in a severe economic contraction. There is NO decline in overall national credit demand. Credit demand shifts from the consumer level to government under such conditions. However, the government does not have to put up real assets for collateral. The skyrocketing supply of “US certificates of confiscation” seeking buyers from a dwindling number of foreign sources is an accident waiting to happen for a country so dependent on imports. The consequences will not be good for US rates, the dollar and consumer prices. As long as America consumes more than it produces, higher prices for Americans must follow regardless of economic slowdown. Even if America were to go Elliott and crash hard, a fall off in domestic demand is likely to be met with an equal if not greater fall off in supply (imports). That’s the other half of the consumer price equation Mish’s ivory tower peers cannot see.
How high will US rates have to go to attract foreign capital? How much capital will it be able to attract? How much debt will the US be forced to monetize on the printing press? How much of this new money finds its way to the bottom? All good questions.
I don’t think slow consumer lending will keep new money from seeking refuge and pushing up prices. The money will to some degree reach consumers by alternate means in a *&#*ist economy and that which does not will still seek refuge.
November 11th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
sideshow
Given the destruction of asset values/wealth, would it not be reasonable to characterize bail out money and other FRB facilities as increasing systemic leverage by “replacing” lost liquidity with new money but doing so upon a smaller asset base? Lost asset values are not being replaced. They are gone. They are just being levered up.
November 11th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Smaller asset base does make some sense to me…but that does not lend itself to commodities making new highs…does it?
November 12th, 2008 at 2:52 am
Listen up people, once the pathetic G20 meeting on Nov15 is over i seriously believe some really nasty s*** is heading our way.
Meanwhile check these out below:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1226473740.php
http://market-ticker.org/auth/2-Karl-Denninger
November 12th, 2008 at 3:43 am
Guys,
Here’s Jim Willie take on USTreasury Bonds:
The printing press is that last defense. Default can be averted, but only with extraordinary actions with clear impact on the USDollar itself, undermining USTreasury integrity at the same time. The huge funding needs in excess of $2.6 trillion cannot be even remotely met by conventional USTreasury Bond issuance. Auction failures from ridiculous under-bid conditions are next to come. Higher bond yield offered is an immediate result. The last resort to printing press usage will have an immediate and negative effect on the USDollar exchange rate. Theoretically the printing press can meet the demand, but in doing so, the risk is transferred to the USDollar from the USTBond. The two are inseparable. In fact, the USGovt-backed bond in the Treasury (which used to hold gold, now pure toxic debt) is the obverse of the USDollar. The backside risk is for the USTBond yield to rise from USDollar pressure, as foreigners sell. The USFed and Dept Treasury have fiercely resisted unbridled usage of the printing press, for fear of inflation consequences.
Here’s Karl Denninger take on USTreasury Bonds:
In my opinion the evidence is incontrovertible that we are literally teetering on the precipice; as evidence I cite the fact that credit-worthy firms continue to have to pay outrageous coupons to get their debt offerings to go (Verizon being among the most recent) and now The Fed has announced that it intends to delay one of the cornerstone pieces of “stabilizing” short-term funding markets - its money-market liquidity facility, which was slated to cover some $500+ billion in commercial paper.
Here’s a WAG on the delay, and is nothing more than a theory that happens to fit the facts - The Fed is aware (perhaps because they’ve been told?) of an impending “problem” with rolling some of Treasury’s short-term debt (and its excessive issue.) They are thus gambling on being able to “scare” some cash into those instruments from money-market funds, where it is currently hiding, to prevent “fails” (or a precipitous coupon jack-up) on those Treasury sales. In short, they’re willing to risk melting money markets once again in order to avoid a potential Treasury Market problem.
Jim thinks the risk will be put on the USDOLLAR while Mr Denninger thinks the risk will be put on MONEY MARKET FUNDS.
I would wish for Tom to comment on this or any silver axis reader as i am slightly leaning towards Karl Denninger’s as a more likely outcome.
November 12th, 2008 at 7:26 am
Freddy Krug…..this is like what your math teacher asks of one. Which way will the problem be solved or resolved. As we know in math we can get the same results in tackling the problem in different ways….but again….the end result is the same.
I would say….each will weaken the system…and in the end take it down. Much like doctors trying to diagnosis if it will be the liver or the kidneys that kills the patient. Karl Denniger’s ideas as well as Jim Willie seem both highly likely candidates. I would also state Doug Noland puts forth the notion that it is impossible to RESTORE the CREDIT MARKETS:
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The problem is that the “unclogging” of inter-bank and “money” markets has had little effect on the Pricing and Availability of Credit for the vast majority of borrowers operating throughout the real economy. After ending September at about 650, junk bond spreads have surged to 950 bps. Investment-grade bond spreads are also higher today than at the end of the third quarter. Benchmark MBS spreads have changed little, while Jumbo mortgage borrowing rates remain elevated. Risk premiums for municipal borrowings have been reduced only somewhat from extreme levels. Unsound borrowers everywhere have little hope of borrowing anywhere.
There are complaints out of Washington that, despite oodles of bailout funding, the banks are refusing to lend. Well, total bank Credit has expanded $575bn over the past 10 weeks, or 32% annualized. Importantly, the asset-backed securities (ABS), collateralized debt obligation (CDO), and securitization markets generally remain closed for new business.
The heart of the matter is not so much that banks are refusing to extend Credit but that the entire mechanism of Wall Street risk intermediation has collapsed. After ballooning into multi-Trillion dollar avenues for Credit expansion, intermediation through the ABS and CDO markets is basically over. The convertible bond market has also badly malfunctioned, along with the “private-label” MBS marketplace. Wall Street’s “auction-rate securities” has ceased as a mechanism for Credit expansion, along with myriad other avenues for securitization. And, importantly, derivatives markets, having evolved into an essential element of contemporary risk intermediation and Credit expansion, have suffered a devastating crisis of confidence. Scores of leveraged strategies are no longer viable. Indeed, Monetary Processes essential for funding broad cross-sections of the economy have completely broken down.
———————-
Furthermore….Noland writes about how dropping interest rates to recapitalie the banks is much different today than it was back in 1990’s. Here is what he states:
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If the markets cooperate, perhaps over the coming months the now breakneck economic contraction will somewhat stabilize. I fear, however, that current dynamics are setting the stage for yet another stage of this vicious crisis. Some analysts believe – and certainly it is the Fed’s intention – for ultra-low interest rates to assist in the recapitalization of the banking system. The early 1990’s provides a nice example: aggressive rate cuts and a steep yield curve provided a backdrop for troubled banks to quietly convalesce by raising cheap deposits and sitting on a safe portfolio of longer-term government debt securities. Why can’t a similar operation bail the banks out of their current predicament?
One should note the stark contrasts between today’s environment and that from the early nineties. First of all, 10-year government yields averaged about 7.8% in the three years 1990 through ’92. Bond markets back then were commencing a historic bull run and, strangely enough, the price of government debt ran higher in the face of huge deficits. There are reasons these days to fear an emergent bond bear. Second, from the Fed’s “flow of funds” report, we know that “Total Net Borrowing and Lending in Credit Markets” averaged $770 billion annually during the ’90-’92 period. “Total Net Borrowing…” last year approached a staggering $4.40 TN. The important point is that today’s Bubble Economy Dynamics were not in play in the early nineties. Sustaining the system required a fraction of today’s Credit creation, thus there was little prevailing pressure on the banks back then to lend amid their “convalescing.”
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Lastly, Noland states the system is down to only four princible sources of “money” creation – the Fed, Treasury, GSEs and the Banks. It’s that old “inflate or die” dilemma that’s already smothered Wall Street finance.
For it to work, ALL FOUR MUST EXPAND AGGRESIVELY in collaboration in order to forestall an economic systemic crisis. At some point in time we would expect a crisis of confidence with one or more of these credit instruments…..thus this would dictate a destabilizing jump in market yields.
Once yields start heading higher…..GAMES OVER for the SYSTEM.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Why is it so quite in Bank-Failure land? If credit conditions are so bad, you would expect bank failures announcements every day.
On a side note, LIBOR is coming down. This whole “bank-are-not-lending” is bullshit. I think JPM is manipulating the entire market.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:04 am
I bet there are MASSIVE NAKED SHORT positions in the ENTIRE COMMODITY SECTOR.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:12 am
SrSrocco…..appreciate the reply.
I have to admit its just that connecting the dots is becoming alot darned harder by the day as there is to much stuff going on at the moment, just way to much variables to factor in as to which outcome prevails.
Yes I have to agree with Doug Noland at Prudent Bear as his Credit Bubble Bulletins are always informative.
If i’m not mistaken Doug posted a very interesting article many years ago i remember it was entitled:
Contemplating the Evolution From the Way We Were To The Way It Is
November 12th, 2008 at 8:31 am
People hold the fort on buying any additional silver bullion. Premiums on 100 oz bars down to 1 oz bars or rounds are way to high and starting to come down. Retail inventories are starting to grow or at the very least some silver is starting to show up on shelves. Places like Apmex is starting to drop premiums and inventory is moving much slower. They have a good deal or 100 oz bars and selection. Which has be moving very slowly over the past few weeks. Silver eagle premiums have dropped, however still remain high. 100 oz bars have about a 30% premium, where as 1 oz bars and round seem to have a 30-40% premium over the paper price. I believe silver is headed to $7 or lower over the next few months. So there is no hurry to buy and pay crazy premiums. Also nothing in the cards shorterm, 3-6 months to drive silver higher. Some analysts talk about the december contract on the comex as being a key delivery time for silver and gold. Which maybe true as people take delivery of the actual metal, however the CFTC will not allow prices to jump and will manipulate the market to keep them in check. So don’t count on that as being a catalyst for silver very short term. Simply put the trend is down and will continue down and premiums are to high. Inventories and shortages are sub-siding and there is no compelling reason to buy silver at thes levels.
November 12th, 2008 at 9:05 am
http://www.21silver.com/guests/jeffrey_mandalis/banking_for_muggles_101.html
& an article on Gold bullion shortage..
http://adask.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/there%e2%80%99s-no-shortage-of-gold-bullion-coins-and-the-price-of-gold-is-rising/
November 12th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Silver….anything is possible. But I would say…we knew this time would come that PREMIUMS would drop….as many entrepreneurs have BOUGHT 1,000 oz bars and have made them into smaller denominations. Thus we now have a large amount of smaller denominations on the market. This is not a BAD thing…but a GOOD THING….as we now have more smaller denominations of silver for trading in the future when the US FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINALLY IMPLODES.
To predict the short term future today is FOLLY. And yes, silver prices could go lower…as well as gold….but do not forget this G-20 meeting on SATURDAY could prove to be quite interesting. I believe its more a CIRCUS SHOW for the masses….but tempers are starting to RISE in countries like RUSSIA, CHINA, and etc as their resources are being priced below cost of marginal production. RUSSIA the BIG BEAR holds the LIFE of many EUROPEANS in their HANDS. They could shut NATURAL GAS PIPELINES down in a minute….making EUROPE one big giant ICE CUBE this WINTER. People do not realize this. Russia can take heat…but they can PULL THE HEAT as well.
Russia has a $39 TARIFF on exported oil. This means if anyone in RUSSIA wants to export their oil…at $59 a barrel….they are left with $20. Oil is accumulating in RUSSIA. As we know…the price of OIL is everything.
What JPMORGAN COMPANY et al and the FED has done to the RESOURCE COMMODITIES….will come back to HAUNT THEM…in a term Chalmers Johnson is famous for….that is BLOWBACK.
Right now the PUTZ, Paulson is FLAPPING HIS GUMS on the BOOB TUBE about absoultely nothing. These folks are completely out of hand…and it is just a matter of time before this IMPLODES. Dmirty Orlov as I have stated before, states that the USA is in the FIRST STAGE of COLLAPSE and entering the SECOND…and these are shown here:
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Stages of Collapse
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.
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As we can see….the USA in entering STAGE 2. At some point in time the US DOLLAR will be DEVALUED….it has to. It matters not which ANAL-LIST is right about which way the DRUNK FALLS DOWN THE STAIRCASE.
I received an email response from Dmitry Orlov when I asked him what it was like during the collapse of the Soviet Union and was Gold and Silver valuable? He had mentioned in one of his articles that when he and some friends wanted to check out neighboring cities to see what was going on…to get gasoline was extremely difficut….no one was taking Russian money…they were trading for real goods.
This was Dmitry’s response to my email:
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Hi Steve,
To make a long story short, it’s good to have some valuables in reserve, for big transactions, like securing a means of escape, buying your way out of a hostage situation, or acquiring property. Gold, silver, precious stones, art and antiques are all useful as far as that. But they are not useful day-to-day. For that, you need personal connections to people with direct access to resources.
-Dmitry
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Sure….you might wait and get silver and gold lower….but when the DOLLAR or the TREASURIES succumb to the PRESURES of WEIGHT of the TITANIC PULLING IT UNDER…..SILVER and GOLD will be wiped off the SHELVES as will GASOLINE, FOOD and etc. At some point in time…you won’t be able to get it.
Lastly, buying gold and silver is not like TIMING the MARKETS…as some of these CHARTING MORONS would like you think….but this is for SURVIVAL. If you want to GAMBLE on saving a FEW CENTS here or there….that might be a GOOD GAMBLE…but the way this SHIP IS SINKING….who knows just how long we have before the LIGHTS GO OUT.
November 12th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Paulson Shifts Focus of Rescue to Consumer Lending:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUBsSA1_p9aQ&refer=home
“Buying “illiquid” mortgage-related assets — the reason the Troubled Asset Relief Program was established a month ago — is no longer being considered, he said.”
It is now to be used to bail out AIG, credit card and personal loan companies. Will there be a vote on this? How will the banks be bailed out now that the TARP is not available? Perhaps it does not matter now that JPM and GS have been saved, or are other bailout facilities to be used as the notional OTC derivative losses become real?
November 12th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Stages of collaspe - After a careful reading and thinking. I don’t think the USA is even FULLY in Stage 1 yet.
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
The stock, credit and commodity markets are down, but I think most professionals view this as a ‘bear’ market that will eventually (within 3 years turn around). Some institututions are ‘insolvent’ and bailed out. No one’s savings were wiped out (FDIC) and access to capital and credit still exists. I’m still getting credit card offers that I don’t want.
Stage 2 hasn’t happened … yet.
November 12th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Srs……stage 5 looooooks goooooood! “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.
Using a my limited background in astrophysics which i was one of my favourite subjects i bring forward this analogy which you does in my oppinion resemble the current credit cycle… The death stage of a star:
Neutron Star…AKA(USTreasury Bonds)
if a star is big enough it will turn into a supernova. The star can be thought of as a tug of war between gravity attempting to collapse the star and the burning which provides a pressure against collapse. When the core has burnt through to Iron, no more energy can be realesd through fusion and the pressure against gravity stops. Gravity wins and squeezes the core of the star. The electons in the iron core are forced in towards the neuclei as the desnity rises. The electrons combine with the positorns and the only material left are neutrons closly packed together. Nuclear degenercy pressure provides support against the collapse. The outer layers get blown away from the recoil against the now neutron core. The remnant is a neutron star, left over after the explosion.
November 12th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Looks like Mish isn’t the only deflationist. This morning, the Bank of England came out as a deflation-monger.
Falling food prices? I doubt it. Not with world grain stocks being the size they are.
2008: The year of global food crisis
I’m firmly in the disintegration camp, with inflation/deflation merely being the observable “bellows” blowing it all apart.
Given all the broken (and otherwise flawed) metrics, measuring much of anything these days is an exercise in moot, as both the standard of measure and measured item are not what they were yesterday. What this managed disintegration will bring, I cannot say. I only know to rig for the storm.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Deflationistas and the rest of us I think it’s a good time to review Benanke’s 2002 “helicopter” speech
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.
or go JSmineset.com.
In it you can review and check off the Fed’s playbook in preventing deflation. all the fed lending, buying commercial paper etc. is laid out right there. Next comes QE which is comaprable to nuking the money supply. If the Fed can’t stop deflation on it’s own then fiscal policy must help. That’s why we have Obama as his policies of income tax “rebates” and putting $ in the hands of the people will be necessary to prevent falling prices(deflation BTW is defined by falling prices i.e. negative CPI) so far we have falling inflation, asset deflation yes but not price deflation.
the bottom line is that “Deflation can always be prevented by the use of the printing press” just a question of how much but in no way can deflation be allowed to happen (in a debt based economy).
Now if I were in their situation I would welcome and pursue the low PM prices and use it to accumulate as much of it as I can because eventually the price will have to explode. Even better if it just rockets overnight before too many people can get their hands on it. That enables the rulers to control more of the metal. Once the price hits the high 4 or 5 figures for gold it’s essentially priced out of the people’s hands. I think the best thing we can do is accumulate and hold on. Don’t be scared or forced out of your holdings. There are quite a few scenarios about to unfold that could explode the PM prices. Dec. short squeeze, Dec/jan. “power transition” geopolitical pressures esp in the ME and Russia and huge fed borrowing that may have to be monetized. To be followed by huge fiscal stimuli once Obama takes over. Read the playbook! and good luck!
November 12th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
The wheels have all fallen off. We can all see that.
To me right now, the key question is how long this period of deflation can last. 1-20 years is the possible range I see, and after reviewing my Kondratiev Wave reading etc, it will likely be towards the longer end. Japan is oft cited, as is “it’s not like Japan now”.
Right now deflation is winning, the Governments are pushing on that string, but the black hole of debt is pulling everything in. Reflating the Bubble won’t work. Debt and losses outweigh any possible government stimuli by large factors.
We are just going to have to live through the bursting of the largest live test run of Bubblenomics ever. Life goes on.
I stopped subscribing to newsletters last year but I still read the free stuff they post now and then, the song remains the same for most.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Neutron stars…
Thus spake ‘Nucular’ Krugerand.
CIRCLE UP THEM WAGONS, BOYS. When the dust settles we can trade our silver forks for petrol and cabbages, our bullion for pepper and barbed wire. ‘HI HO, SILVER.’
The Hunts couldn’t maintain the bubble in silver’s price and lost it all in a margin call; so how can we expect the price to rise with the downward pressure being applied by The Cartel?
Looking at the long-term big picture of gold and silver what you see is speculative mania driving up the price about once a generation. So it would seem to me that we’re going to see lateral moves for a long time. Mining stocks need a bull to ride to get anywhere; there’s none on the horizon.
The only bull visible (audible) is that coming from On High. They CANNOT allow gold to make a move. So, we’re stuck as the patina of silver’s sulphide-ation dims what (starry) light finds to mirror (the alphabet soup on the floor of the Treasury must be annoying).
Four Lines For Silver
The death of the current Star will be nothing bright
As America follows Rome to the trash bin of history,
While T-Bond candles and fiat bonfires fill the night,
Your Regal Gold with Yoeman’s Silver ascend in victory.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
LET ME TELL YA SOMETHING……after I saw PAULSON up there today in front of the cameras BLABBERING on the BOOB TUBE….I realized its just a matter of MONTHS…not YEARS before the whole SHA-BANG is up.
This is not going to be a DEFLATIONARY 20 YEAR CYCLE….CanadaPaper…its going to be a 1-2 YR DISINTEGRATION of the US and WORLD FINANCIAL SYSTEM. The United States will enter into STAGE 2 of its COLLAPSE. All bets are off once we get our TOES WET in that POND SCUM. HYPERINFLATION, SHORTAGES, and RATIONING will be KING….and BERNANKE will be QUEEN……of the FAIRIES that is.
I got one of ALAN GREENSPANS 8 HAIRS they he uses to COMB OVER that BALD SKULL of his. I have put it into my LUCKY RABBIT FOOT. Everyday I get up…I RUB THE HELL out of that little SUCKER hoping for the END OF THE DOLLAR. My RABBIT FOOT is a better bet than that WHORE we call the DOLLAR. I have ALAN GREENSPAN to thank for that. His hair is now my LUCKY CHARM…..BABY.
HECLA $1.01….down 92.5% since its high in April…talk about WHIPLASH.
November 12th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
betting against the endurance and resilience of humanity has been consistently very unprofitable for a very long time… i know its not contributing much of substance, but writing tin hat bull$it on here and other places is doing anything constructive either…
i enjoy the insightful commentary on technical matters and have learned a lot - but to become depressed i read Gorky and Solzhenitsyn (quoted above)… And when i feel like making a classic herd mentality behavioral investment mistake i read analyst projections…
November 12th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
When All Else Fails….there’s JIM SINCLAIRS WISDOM:
——————–
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Today’s new news (seriously):
TARP = Trouble Asset Relief Program (now closed).
QE = Quantitative Easing. (now opened).
CRAP = Consumer Relief Asset Program.
The lower Yen was the product of QE in the early 2000s.
A lower dollar will be a product of QE and CRAP.
Finally it will be remembered as CRAPpy QE.
———————
Watching the CLOWNS on WALL STREET, GOVT and the FED….just makes ya want to laugh. Unfortunately….understanding the TRUTH…makes ya want to CRY. Ain’t LIFE GRAND.
November 12th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
In a deflationary scenario, the total debt burden will become unbearable at a certain stage. Collapsing tax income and higher unemployment, SS outlays will exponentially increase the fiscal deficit.
At a certain point, the US can no longer fulfill its debt obligations (nothing left to tax) and MUST either DEFAULT or HYPER-INFLATE.
In both cases, the dollar will die.
You pick the one you like.
November 12th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
As a side note, the JPM manipulation reminds me of the ‘trick’ Rothschild pulled off during the Battle of Waterloo.
At that time, Rothschild had superior knowledge than anyone else at the stock exchange and knew before anyone else that Napoleon had been defeated.
To profit from this, Rothschild actually started dumping consols as to telegraph that Napoleon had won! The market panicked and a crash in consols followed. Subsequently, at the bottom, Rothschild bought all and some of the consols it had sold before; and when the news broke that Napoleon had been defeated, he repeated huge profits by the massive surge in the price of consols.
Deja Vu, n’est-ce pas?
November 12th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Hi there! I am Russian, and I am eye-witness of the Soviet Union collapse, and of other troubles like hyperinflation, economic crises, numerous devaluations, denomination and 1998 debt default. Although I was quite young back in 1990s (I’m 30 now), I still remember many aspects well.
Speaking of crises, the most important thing I have to say to you is: crisis is bad if you have no idea what is coming your way, and why. All of you guys have very good idea of what is going on, and what is coming. Don’t worry too much, then!
Couple of words on physical silver here in the middle of Russia. In October I have personally bought around 10 kilos in a bank - no hassle, no cue, no problemo. Base price is COMEX+1%. Premium adds 12% on 1-kg bullion or 15% on 500g one. All of these - exactly the same as 2 years ago. And 18% VAT, of course. Like always, too…
November 12th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
AlexM….according to one of your COMRADES over there…..Dmirty Orlov…says the United States will have a worse COLLAPSE than the SOVIET UNION due to the fact that RUSSIA is not designed like America in the way of SUBURBAN SPRAWL. Russians could take the collapse much eaiser as many of them raised alot of their own food.
Unless we get out stuff from the BIG RIG headind across the country….its going to be a diet of CATS and DOGS for us.
Lastly…..don’t you worry about your silver…..its still going to be a good store of value. How about the price of GOLD….I thought RUSSIA had a lot of GOLD there.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Tom’s SilverAxis website has been recently too saturated by GOLD comments while “poor man’s gold” SILVER has been left in the dust ,so might as well continue the sensory overload …click below people.
Gold may not be hitting new high’s but after viewing these pix’s you’ll be on a high!
http://www.fotosearch.com/photos-images/gold-bullion.html
November 12th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Sorry guys am gonna have to bombard you with Gold mantra some more until your mind cannot take no more.
The song below was released in 1980 after Gold peaked at $850.
ARTIST SONG
——— ——-
Spandau Ballet “Gold”
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=gSq8ZBdSxNU
Pity there was no song released called “SILVER” or “PAPER” !
November 12th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Anyone seeing any good deals on silver future options? Picked up a July $16 and July $17 call options.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
SRSrocco, I’ve read the article of Dmitry Orlov couple of years ago. Scary stuff, yeah. But I doubt you’ll have your kitties for a lunch. One doesn’t need that much land for growing vegetables per family, per year - 600 sq.m. is more than enough here, in cold snowy Siberia. You can grow your stuff twice a year, so you need even less.
The devil is not so terrible as he is painted. You’ll surely find your way out of this mess. Where is your famous, ever-present, American optimism?
As for gold, in my bank you have to pay spot COMEX+1%, plus 2% premium (1 kilo bar), plus 18% VAT. These rates stay unchanged for at least few years.
We Russians normally don’t buy silver or gold when we feel another crisis is nigh. Our choice for the last 20 years is your Almighty Dollar…
November 12th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
how did we get from a stock market crash to eating each other? There is plenty of food in North America to feed North Americans. Really, if everything crashes, which it will IMHO, we have a looooong ways to go down. For food start at steak dinners out -> pasta -> mickie D’s -> cooking at home -> lowering to staple items -> growing your own food. If you just look at food alone, you will see that while we are headed for a depression, again IMHO, we have a lot of leeway to get there. A steak dinner (in Canada) with a beer and dessert is about $40. Bean soup is under $0.20/100grams, so you could buy 20kg of hearty healthy soup. I would think that’s about 2 weeks of food, although you might get bored of it.
My predictions are, consumables go way up, houses and large ticket domestic items go way down. Imported items from Asia go way up. We go back to 1 tv, 1 car, smaller houses, little to no disposable income. Not the end of the world, but TEOTWAWKI.
November 12th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
AlexM,
Actually, 18% VAT is for bars, not coins. The Russian gold coins are exempt of the VAT.
http://cbr.ru/bank-notes_coins/Coins_base/
http://www.nz.ru/uslugi/chastnym-klientam/operacii-s-monetami-iz-dragocennyh/
November 12th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
If you want to get a reading of what the bond market has to say about the inflation vs deflation debate I would suggest that you perform the following comparison of spreads: Go to Stockcharts.com and run the daily spreads for $UST2Y:$UST3M then do the same for $UST5Y:$UST3M; $UST10Y:$UST3M; $UST20Y:$UST3M; and $UST30Y:$UST3M. The spreads for these effective Nov 12/08 are: 6.61; 13.17; 20.83; 24.67 and 23.17 respectively. Compare these spreads to the 50 day moving averages for each spread prior to Sept 17/08 (the day that the AIG bailout was announced). These current spreads are approximately 3.4x (times); 5.8x; 7.8x; 8x and 9.3x the spreads that existed prior to the AIG bailout. This tells me that the bond market is requiring significantly greater spreads to hold long term USGov’t money since the AIG bailout. Why? Since all US debt is considered “default risk free” then the only difference must be expectations of inflation over those periods. So since the 2 yr spread has increased by over 300% since Sept 16 the bond market is that much more fearful that the dollars that they will receive from the treasury will have a lower purchasing power than the dollars they invest today. Comments?
November 12th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
the banks like the steeper curve. right now the short end is manipulated lower. If inflation is 5% thenshort term rates should be at least that so even with the widening spread the long bond doesn’t cover current inflation let alone future. I don’t trust what the markets are saying too much because they’re all manipulated. Everything that is playing out suits the money masters just fine. Lehman collapse, hedgefund deleveraging, Asset deflation, fear of price deflation, bailouts for WS, run into dollars, collapse of resource economies like russia, iran, venezuela and of course the election of BHM for the final icing on the inflation cake. Anyone who believes the dollar will devalue considerably if not outright collapse must agree that inflation is the only possibility. But if you believe the $ can maintain it’s current lofty levels then by all means bet on deflation HAHAHA. that’s me having the last laugh on deflationistas.
November 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
sorry I meant BHObama. He was put into the WH by the money masters because not only will he finish off Bernanake’s anti deflation play book with loose monetary policy but the mostly minority poor will not have a reason to riot when the SHTF. No to mention his socialist big govt. policies that will be used to control everything in our lives. Blue or Red pill for you?
November 12th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
There is attempted manipulation in all markets but I believe that the bond market is the most difficult market to maipulate. The really BIG players are all at this table … Gulf states, China, Japan, BRIC, etc. Ultimately they (purchasers of US debt) will decide the outcome of this one. The increase in spreads since AIG bailout tells me that they are getting REALLY nervous. I think that it is just a matter of time (short time) before they pull their bids. It would not take a recession in China to cause a decrease in the amount of NEW Treasuries that they buy … only a reduction in growth. Since the US has an increasing appetite for debt financing due to the alphabet soup of bailout facilities this train is heading off the tracks at full speed.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Actually, the bond market is the MOST manipulated market. All the bond market players are central banks. By adjusting monetary policy, they can force the yields up or down.
Yield to high? Print dollar buy bonds. Yield to low? Sell bond or contract money supply.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
http://www.tocom.or.jp/20081105-1.html
is paper now gold?
or is gold now paper?
November 12th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Maybe the Russians and some other commodity exporters are upset but our Chinese masters must be happy. Their over-weighted dollar reserves are up in relative strength, their US treasuries are firm, critical commodities are cheap, strategically desirable US companies get cheaper by the day. Continued flows out of equities conveniently support Chinese dollar and US treasury holdings.
Are you listening Hank? “As long as you are in office, squeeze equities.”
The Chinese have just seen a huge payoff with a little help from their man in DC.
Why would their leadership be upset?
“Thanks Hank!”
“Oh, and the very attractive woman taking care of your villa here says you left behind what look to be some briefing notes. You are welcome to pick them up here at the ministry next time you visit the PRC to pay respects.”
If Americans had a clue the only safe place for Hank to retire will be China.
The next Chinese trade ?
Start unloading dollars and US treasuries into strength.
Buy cheap strategic assets.
Spend some of that funny money on domestic infrastructure.
Replace the American export market with a domestic Chinese market.
Scoop up domestic equities at bargain prices – perks of power.
November 13th, 2008 at 12:52 am
lou chip: The temptation to use ETF gold to back the futures trade has become too great it seems. Will the COMEX pull off the same stunt to avoid a technical default?
November 13th, 2008 at 2:01 am
Serge,
Here in Russia gold coins without VAT cost ca. 35-40% above COMEX spot, substantially pricier than bars. Silver coins without VAT are extremely difficult to find (especially in quantities), and they also cost more than bars. C’est la vie!
November 13th, 2008 at 2:20 am
Alex,
Your Russian stock exchange just dropped today 15% in the first minute. Trading is now halted, exchange closed until Monday. Will the Ruble be devalued this weekend? Will the dollar?
When will Putin ask gold for oil instead still accepting dollars? When will he show his balls?
When will the Chinese? Will they ever? For now, China seems to wait. If they wait too long, they will fall off the cliff along with the US. I don’t care anymore. They should have bought gold a long time ago!!
November 13th, 2008 at 3:04 am
Deflationists & Mish lovers
If Mish is right on everything, let him try to explain how gold is dropping while he has been pontificating the opposite. He said something like “cash & gold are king in deflation…blah blah because gold is money blah blah.”
It is the stupid foreigners who cling to the dollar in crisis that are responsible. Stupid indeed. And they will pay. And the day is not far. 1-20 years is a damn wide range. anything could happen in between. 1-2 years is more like it.
And where is the deflation, all you deflationist believers. It is not there in the money supply. It is not there in $Libor. It is there in your confidence. And what for. Just because PMs took a bad hit? And what bad hit - 30% from all time high for gold? Don’t you see that much in your stock bull once in a while?
Why doesn’t Mish discuss money supply - that is how he defines deflation? Fekete defines deflation better - “money flow from bond to the commodity market”. That seems to be happening. But for how long? Any bond bulls on this forum? Any dollar bulls, huh?
I can see SRS fighting a losing battle here with paper tigers. SRS dear, despite the fact that you speak the truth, there is risk that you might lose a finger or two. But keep the posts coming.
For all you guys who come with the easy money mentality - go back to your paper & play your favourite stocks & bonds. You will make a lot of easy money, I am sure. All you people want a steady bull market - 25% per annum, untill you make a million bucks. Then you can retire in peace and dump all your PM clunk on the next goldbug who will carry the sack all throughout the next bear market. That is what people like Gary North did.
Guys, we have a burning crisis here. Created by fiat money. Fiat dollars to be precise. If you don’t see that you are blind. The fiat price of anything today is not important. Survival in the crisis is important. There are 2 boats- USTs & Gold. One is rock solid & another made of paper. Make your choice now. Don’t trade like you did all these years. Don’t play margin. Don’t “invest in PMs”. Simply buy them while you can get it.
You will survive only if you choose wisely.
November 13th, 2008 at 3:49 am
Keseri….i agree
Mish is probably using the fall in LOBSTER PRICES as the proxy for his deflationary outlook.
Mr Ambrose has also been infected by the “deflationitis”bug
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3448664...
JVD….
I’m also with you on this one with regards to Mr Putin.
Also Venezuela’s Pres. Chavez and Iran’s Ahmedijinabad should push for gold and silver as being the new form of payment for crude oil.
The Great Russian BEAR should IMMEDIATLY shut down all oil and gas into Europe and demand payment in gold.
The U.K. imports most from Norway luckily.
The stupid Norweigen’s continues to accept the Pound Sterling which is being pushed ten foot under by the Bank of England.
We all know the obvious that the Credit/debt bubble has burst but one remains….. USTBonds.
Gold and silver await patiently for its demise.
Some Pro.Hedge fund managers bought into the 30YearUSTreasury back in july expecting a long deflationary phase L-SHAPE recovery, i hope they regret this move.
November 13th, 2008 at 4:04 am
JVD,
Don’t want to speculate on unknown subjects.
Another “-15%” day, or so it seemed the first few minutes. Not a big deal, really: it has already dropped from 2500 (19.05.) to 550 (24.10.), that’s 78% decline. Right now the index licks 615 level; we’ve been here before, it doesn’t scare us any longer. Trading is now resumed, to surprise many.
This -15% initial decline has, I guess, nothing to do with the devaluation itself, although the latter may happen one day or another. It just says ‘boo!’ to inconsistency in recent government’s decisions and intentions.
I really don’t know the answer to other questions. I never pretended I know in advance Russia’s, China’s or Putin’s actions…
November 13th, 2008 at 5:36 am
It is indeed guessing about the actions of policy makers (China, Russia, US).
But this week Dominique Strauss Kahn of the IMF said nothing important was going to happen on the G-20 summit on November 15th.
It was like the Mexican president saying on a saturday in 1982 nothing was going to happen. On Monday, the currency was devalued. And that repeated twice during the same year.
If I was Medvedev and I was going to the G-20 summit with a crashing Russian stock exchange, a plummeting currency, fast deteriorating international reserves and an oil price around 50$ while the IEA is saying we will have an oil shortage in 2010 (this is indeed within 13 months!)…. I would get mad… and smash the tables.
We will go to inflation but how? Will it happen slowly, fast or overnight. I tend to think it will start overnight. ‘The powers that be’ have pushed commodities so low, the dollar so high in such a short time that I think the reverse will take place in even shorter time period. It would be the Tsunami, Tom is talking about.
For all paper lovers:
”How did you go bankrupt?”
”Two Ways. Gradually, and then suddenly.”
Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
November 13th, 2008 at 6:24 am
You know what is worrysome? That the “deflationroom” is very crowded with bears.
HELP HELP! I CANNOT BREATH ANYMORE!!! lol
If you ask me, it is TOO CROWDED.
Wasn’t the crowd always wrong?
November 13th, 2008 at 6:36 am
THIS IS WHAT I PREFER TO COME OUT OF THE G20 MEETING…click below:
http://www.fotosearch.com/ART314/inf004/
November 13th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Apology guys….ignore the above link…..click below for direct access.
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=ART/ART314/INF004.jpg
November 13th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Don’t look long term…long term is too far away…. just trade technical and look at the open interest.
November 13th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I’ll Let the pictures do the talking……. click below
For the deflationists…..!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=PHC/PHC002/200316013-001.jpg
For the goldbugs………$2000 gold?
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=PDS/PDS039/BU010327.jpg
For the economists…….US economy!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=IST/IST520/1246210.jpg
For the american public……… blind faith!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=IMR/IMR256/IE079-071.jpg
For Bear Stearns investors……….House Of Morgan(JPM)!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=DGV/DGV168/436043.jpg
For the hedge fund managers……!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=WTD/WTD004/LDF00473.jpg
The COMEX……..in the not so distant future!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=UNY/UNY826/u10031724.jpg
The recent government bailouts…….God Bless America!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=PHD/PHD585/AA000428.jpg
And finally ,Coming to America……..soon!
http://www.fotosearch.com/bigcomp.asp?path=SBY/SBY854/71079752.jpg
…thats all folks!
November 13th, 2008 at 8:31 am
SRSrocco comes clean…
Folks….I don’t see this as a debate between Inflationists and Deflationist…or Metal or Paper. I see this a the TRUTH as well as FUNDAMENTALS. keseri…….I appreicate the SLAP On the BACK…but I don’t plan on losing a FINGER….Unless it gets stuck in JAMIE DIMON’S EYE.
Yes, sometimes when you read enough from some very smart researchers and authors about what is going on behind closed doors, you want to just TAKE A FLAME THROWER TO THE PLACE (line borrowed from the movie Scarface). But alas….why do that when you might BURN innocent people in the process. So we have to be patient and wait.
I left SUBURBIA and the Big City 2 years ago. I had been planning on the move for years…but when I came across an interview on Coast to Coast with Art Bell and James Kunstler back in 2005….I made my mind up that day. It was just a matter of time and planning. I sold my business at the end of 2006 and my wife and I made the move to the country. We have a wonderful place on acreage in a small ranching community in one of the western states. We have no debts whatsoever. We have started a nice organic garden and orchard. And I have to say….I am in better shape then I have ever been. Clean air, no stress and sunshine does wonders on the mind and body.
This fun I have in here is for entertainment as well as it allows my mind to keep busy. The debating I do in here is not about RIGHT or WRONG…but TRUTH and FUNDAMENTALS. Of course right now we do not have either. What is UP is DOWN…and what is BAD is GOOD. So in that environment…we have to be patient and wait until the GRAVITY does its thing on this society.
Back in 2005, Kunstler stated that by 2008, there would be a great deal of ECONOMIC HARDSHIP….and by the end of the decade and onwards, a lot of MOVEMENT of people out of SUBURBIA and into BIG CITIES or the COUNTRY. So far……Kunstler has been DEAD ON. You put his ideas along with Dmitry Orlov….we have a recipe for DISASTER in this COUNTRY.
So with that in mind….this WHOLE IDEA that the US ECONOMY will recover is pure BOLLOCKS. The US ECONOMY and SOCIETY will DISINTEGRATE.
When this is known as the TRUTH and FUNDAMENTALS based on the facts that the USA peaked in oil production in 1970 and has only a 6 million barrel a day CRUDE OIL supply a day, 1/3 of what it presently consumes…..you realize the GARBAGE being spewed in the media is NONSENSE. The same nonsense they kept BLABBERING about in the past…and that is…..BUY and HOLD…..as well as…DIVERSIFICATION. Both have proved to be DISASTEROUS LOSERS.
Whats left? Well for those with a FUNCTIONING BRAINSTEM….time to get out of the BIG CITY and SUBURBS and into the country…or out to another foreign country. Time to get into REAL ASSETS and not PAPER. Time to get a REAL TRADE and not something STOOPID like owning a PARTY STORE or some GARBAGE like that.
Real Estate will prove to be a TERRIBLE investment unless one owns low cost cheap apartments close to future manufacturing or local farming. Unfortunately…. a great deal of SUBURBIA and most of the ASSETS in it will be worth pennies on the dollar. Many suburbs and strip malls will be demolished and stripped of its materials for recycling.
It matters not to me…how long it takes before the FUNDAMENTALS of REAL ASSETS become worth their weight in GOLD or SILVER…because time is on my side…..but it is not for the masses. This will become UGLY…and it is something not to look forward to. But the CRAPOLA that is being REGURGITATED on the BOOB TUBE is not preparing AMERICANS. Instead its the same DOG and PONY SHOW….coming from the very MORONS who put us there in the first place.
So those who think DELFATION is coming…..SORRY CHARLIE….its going to be HYPERINFLATION, SHORTAGES, RATIONING and INDIGESTION.
word………
November 13th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Thank you, all, for making these threads such high-value content for my daily scan of the down-she-goes financial world, and welcome, Alex.
Orlov’s Russian perspective has me curious to study Russia’s experience more closely, but haven’t had time to get and read his book. And thanks, Alex, for relaxing us a little in our hyper-vigilance in watching every little squiggle of downturn.
Have the farmland already, SRS; just don’t want to get too wedged into one vulnerable location, as I concentrate this year on turning myself “multinational.”
I over-estimated systemic risk in the derivatives (options) market and so passed up buying the “doom puts” that I expect I would have ridden to a 4x cashout. Probably would have only been a max of 10k into 40k, so I won’t kick myself over it very much. But, 20 years of waiting since ‘87…
Also should have written some calls on my metals at the hyperbolic upcurve, and further arbitraged the likely coming spread between physical and Comex as the fiat empire fought back…
November 13th, 2008 at 11:00 am
SRS, sorry if rubbed you the wrong way.
What I really meant was all these paper tigers are the stuff what makes the bulk of society today. All they are interested in is making truckloads of cash anyway the system allows - vipers & blood vermin really. They will play the bond market, derivatives - everything but honest living & honest money. They come around believing that gold will blast off tommorrow - but oh no, it didn’t. Then the frustation dawns - Oh you damn goldbugs, crazy fellas, cheats & blistering barnacles….. What is the point in arguing with a clueless & reckless majority?
SRS, glad to hear that you are having a nice time already with your rustic bliss. Good for you. The future as it unfolds will vindicate your foresight.
November 13th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Russians will come mad at G-20.
The Chinese - dunno if they are happy with their bond portfolio or sad with their export crash. I think they are
The Indians are as usual clueless. All they want is a greater say in world power-play.
(Europe-Russia) are USA lackeys really.
Others are the gullible audience.
With that backdrop I don’t expect much in terms of PM. It will be yak yak …..free market failed….yak yak….more regulation needed….yak yak inflation under control… yak yak….co-ordinated policy needed…yak yak
yak yak.
In between Russia would $@#$#@^&sons of many fathers @#$#$#mothers of lady sons$#@$#$holy SH**$@#$#@^&son of many underwears @#$#$#guns of navrone$#@$#$holy SH**
The secret compromise solution would be to keep oil above $65-70 and let the gas flow into Europe.
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Mate1 is running a special holiday promotion this week - They are giving away 3 months of free access to new members (Men and Women). Absolutely no credit card/payment required.
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[b]4)[/b]
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Note: Make sure you follow the steps above completely. During the initial signup process it’s important that you do not select subscription because the coupon code field will not be visible. You need to create a free trial account first.
[b]Happy Holidays!
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[b]Mate1 Dating Site - Holiday Coupon Code - 3 Months Absolutely Free![/b]
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Mate1 is running a special holiday promotion this week - They are giving away 3 months of free access to new members (Men and Women). Absolutely no credit card/payment required.
[b]Instructions on how to get 3 months of free access to Mate1:[/b]
[b]1)[/b]
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[b]2)[/b]
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[b]3)[/b]
Once you have successfully signed up and verified your email address and contact information proceed to the subscription link on the Mate1 website.
[b]4)[/b]
On the subscription screen there is a place for a coupon code – Enter “HOLIDAY” and click Apply. You will now see you have 3 months of access credited to your account. Enjoy!
Note: Make sure you follow the steps above completely. During the initial signup process it’s important that you do not select subscription because the coupon code field will not be visible. You need to create a free trial account first.
[b]Happy Holidays!
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[b]Mate1 Dating Site - Holiday Coupon Code - 3 Months Absolutely Free![/b]
Mate1 boasts a membership of over 16 million online daters with a ratio of 50% men and 50% women for the most even playing field on the Internet. It’s by far the hottest dating site on the internet right now… You are guaranteed to meet someone you like!
Mate1 is running a special holiday promotion this week - They are giving away 3 months of free access to new members (Men and Women). Absolutely no credit card/payment required.
[b]Instructions on how to get 3 months of free access to Mate1:[/b]
[b]1)[/b]
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[b]2)[/b]
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During the signup process it will ask you if you want to signup for a ‘Free Trial Account’ or if you want to ‘Subscribe/Pay’ - You want to select “Free Trial Account”.
[b]3)[/b]
Once you have successfully signed up and verified your email address and contact information proceed to the subscription link on the Mate1 website.
[b]4)[/b]
On the subscription screen there is a place for a coupon code – Enter “HOLIDAY” and click Apply. You will now see you have 3 months of access credited to your account. Enjoy!
Note: Make sure you follow the steps above completely. During the initial signup process it’s important that you do not select subscription because the coupon code field will not be visible. You need to create a free trial account first.
[b]Happy Holidays!
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[b]Are You Looking To Meet Someone Over The Holidays?[/b]
[b]Mate1 Dating Site - Holiday Coupon Code - 3 Months Absolutely Free![/b]
Mate1 boasts a membership of over 16 million online daters with a ratio of 50% men and 50% women for the most even playing field on the Internet. It’s by far the hottest dating site on the internet right now… You are guaranteed to meet someone you like!
Mate1 is running a special holiday promotion this week - They are giving away 3 months of free access to new members (Men and Women). Absolutely no credit card/payment required.
[b]Instructions on how to get 3 months of free access to Mate1:[/b]
[b]1)[/b]
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[b]2)[/b]
Signup for a free trial account.
During the signup process it will ask you if you want to signup for a ‘Free Trial Account’ or if you want to ‘Subscribe/Pay’ - You want to select “Free Trial Account”.
[b]3)[/b]
Once you have successfully signed up and verified your email address and contact information proceed to the subscription link on the Mate1 website.
[b]4)[/b]
On the subscription screen there is a place for a coupon code – Enter “HOLIDAY” and click Apply. You will now see you have 3 months of access credited to your account. Enjoy!
Note: Make sure you follow the steps above completely. During the initial signup process it’s important that you do not select subscription because the coupon code field will not be visible. You need to create a free trial account first.
[b]Happy Holidays!
Mate1[/b]