Not Technical Mumbo Jumbo
A gentleman whose technical work I respect — and who may have taken personal offense to my recent comment that no amount of “technical mumbo jumbo” can currently tell us where the bottom in silver lies — has taken up the challenge. This is the same technician whose $729 bottom in gold I discussed recently. Writing two days ago with silver still above $14, he found reason to believe a bottom in silver could lie somewhere between there and above $10 (I don’t want to give out the precise number without his permission). The analysis involves an “MMG” around $16 (coincidentally, or perhaps not, this is the very same $16 level I’ve been harping on for a couple of weeks) with an “MG” target at $1X.XX. The trading in silver on Friday was consistent with his technical call considering the incredible violence of silver’s plunge. Especially if involuntary liquidations due to margin calls played a big role in the washout, which they most likely did. I’m trying to see if this gentleman is willing to release his work to a few privileged eyes. Please leave a comment if you’d be interested in seeing it should I be successful working out some sort of arrangement. First come, first served.
Yes…..I would love to see it. I am trying to take in all “Views” right now and am watching the PM markets closely. Is this the bottom?
I tried to catch a falling knife last week buying silver on the way down….and i got cut hard…..LOL….Oh well. Physical only…Delivery sometime end of month!
you bet,,sign me up,,i was watching the market and made a good(lucky?)call on the friday drop.now i,m calling for a finnale drop coming in on monday and tuesday ,$ 1.00-$1.49(mon), $ 1.00+(tuesday),,wedsday stable upto thursday…FRIDAY we will start going UP.
Yes please, as I have catching several falling knives on the way down never expecting a “break out” to the downside while shorting SLV in parallel during La Plunge.
James Flanagan gave me the heads up way ahead of the curve of no return before the big truck, with headlights glaring, came around the bend, in the dark of the night.
What is the “MoreAg Ratio” and is it generated by Jim Otis?
By the way, Tom, thanks for creating this Blog Venue….at least now we will be benefiting from all of your insights, on demand, just in time! *_^
Is there a feature where Participants can upload their Illustrations to enhance what they are sharing….charts, signals, ratios, etc., et. al.
Yep would love to know as well.
Yes. The more info the better. I’ve taken a beating this week, and I realize I know a lot less about the silver market than I thought. I am in for the long term though.
sign me up. Trying to absorb all I can about this silver market.
Please share it if you can. I could use a perspective that could explain what is happening.
Would like to see this work as well.
The more info, the better!
Yes, I would be interested.
Yes , I would like to see this gentlemans market work , thankyou .
Tom is right - TA does not work for the commodity sector, for the simple reason that it is small market compared to the world paper markets. some large buyer/seller can easily screw those charts. more so for the silver market -which is tiny compared to even the gold market.
the only sensible investment strategy especially now is buy on dips - the bigger the better. hell, these dips are godsend.
today hedgies are like sell, sell, sell - margin calls - to what extent they are spooked who knows and who can predict. junk those TA charts. don’t buy margin. buy the stuff only Tom and maybe SLV if u like it.
remember uncle sam is broke. it holds thousands of trillions of outstanding derivative contracts - translate monopoly money. the only way outta this mess is PRINT, PRINT, PRINT - whoa , way to hyperinflation!!!!!
Thanks Tom - I would like to see his work as well.
Thanks again Tom, please include me in this research.
Tom, count me in.
Hi Tom,
YES! It’s not that I want to know, it’s that I NEED to know
I have mixed feelings about TA, after over 40 years of observing the markets. However, look at the seasonal charts for precious metals over the past 7 or 8 years, showing a dramatic dip in August followed by a sharp rise in the next 4 to 5 months. Happens every year. I guess that’s validation of sorts for TA. At any rate, I’m betting it holds true this year once again. That plus the fact that the dollar, while rallying here, will eventually nosedive because of fundamentals. But I would sure like to see this guy’s stuff if he is that precise.
Silver closed at just 50 or 70 cents above its low on Friday. I wonder if that doesn’t indicate that silver is going lower for the future. If the selling was due to one big liquidation followed by black box selling, then it seems to me it would have bounced back to over 13.
We never had this kind of leveraged money in the markets–ever. So the unwinding of the long commodities/short dollar can cause price movements that are unprecedented. So how useful is TA, which after maps the past, in this environment.
Currently long three mini Sept and short one mini Dec. Looks like I’ll be glued to my trading screen from Sun night thru Mon.
Kondor: August is a lean month for PM trade because it is a lean buying period - Apr - May happens to be Indian wedding season and Sep - Nov is the Indian festival season (Rakshabandhan, Diwali, etc.). Dec is Christmas. thus, there is a fundamental reason for the Aug lows - not necessarily technical reason.
Going forward i do not believe Aug lows would be seen, because investment demand for precious metals would dominate and not indian buying.
Sign me up need all the help we can get here.
Sign me up Tom, we need all the help we can get here.
It would be interesting to see his work. Although I am only going to make a small purchase soon it could help.
Sign me up please Tom. Sounds interesting.
Yes I am interested. Sign me up!
I have been buying all the way down and would love to see some idea of where the heck the blood will stop running.
Meanwhile its only greenbacks I am giving up which eventually will be worth-less if I can hold out that long.
Count me in to the email list!
Tom:
I too would be most interested in the technical analysis bottom figure.
me too, please.
Yes, sign me up please I have been buying in the mid-sixteen level and was amazed to see silver prices fall in to the twelves so fast.
I would be interetsed in the silver bottom analysis.
Thanks,
yes please, would appreciate it if you can send me that also.
Yes please, Iwould love to see it as well. Thanks!
Tom:
Please pardon my ignorance, but could you please spell out what the ‘MS’ and ‘MMS’ acronyms in your post stand for?
Neither Google nor Wikipedia are any help in trying to figure them out.
Sorry, I ment ‘MG’ and ‘MMG’
Lawrence, These refer to the Gaps in the analysis I sent to you. Please let me know if you didn’t get it. The reason I am being a bit sneaky about this is that the analysis is not meant for public dissemination.